Monday: O 7715.5 H 7728.5 L 7703.5 C 7708.75, volume 137,293. Range 25.00 = 0.40 ATR, third narrowest of the last twenty.
Monday scores cyc 1, checked against the labeller with the real closed bar. Not an inside day (its 7703.50 low broke Friday's 7711.75) and the spring did not fire (it needed a close back above 7711.75; it closed 7708.75). Tuesday is Day 2 with no signal day behind it. The card said Day 3 all Monday — a defect, fixed, not yet shipped.
Day 2 has no measured edge: −0.221R on 182 touches, interval −0.45 to +0.00, corrected p 1.00. Tuesday's range clears 1 ATR 42% against a 40% baseline. Trade the levels, not the day.
Monday closed on top of its own shelf. PDC 7708.75 and FDM_H 7708.00 are 0.75 apart, one level. The shelf is 7703.5–7708.0; the level above is 7711.75, only 3.75 up.
The pocket is 3.75 points, 0.60T. That is the most important number here: there is almost no room between the shelf and the level above, so whichever side price leaves on decides the session early.
Trigger: a 15m bar closes above 7711.75. Not a wick, not an engulf, the close.
Entry 7712.25 · stop 7705.5 (1T under, risk 6.75) or 7703.25 (under the shelf, risk 9.00)
Dead if it closes back under 7711.75.
| target | what | R tight | ATR |
|---|---|---|---|
7722.5 | dPOC | 1.52R | 0.16 ATR |
7728.5 | PDH · EQ | 2.41R | 0.26 ATR |
7766.5 | PWH · month high | 8.04R | 0.87 ATR |
If price dips into 7703.5–7708.0 without first reaching above 7711.75, and a 15m bar closes back above 7708.0.
Entry 7708.5 · stop 7703.25 · risk 5.25
Dead if a 15m closes below 7703.5.
| target | what | R | ATR |
|---|---|---|---|
7711.75 | Friday low | 0.62R | 0.05 ATR |
7722.5 | dPOC | 2.67R | 0.22 ATR |
7728.5 | PDH · EQ | 3.81R | 0.32 ATR |
The first rung is 0.62R on purpose. Under 1.5R the measured hit rate is 38.8% (33/85) against 11.3% beyond 2.5R, and the average R runs the other way, −0.28 near and +0.04 far. The near rung prints most and pays least.
A 15m close below 7703.5 and the plan is over, not weakened. No longs. Next structure below is 7674.75, 28.75 lower, with nothing in between.
Wait. Never chase. Let the first 15m close print.
Sit. 3.75 points is under a tenth of an ATR, and this is where the give-back lives.
| rule | the number |
|---|---|
| No size before 10:30 ET | the IB does not exist until then |
| First touch, not the second | 65.5% n=328 vs 57.0% n=251 |
| The close is the signal | +32pp; wicks and engulfs flip sign |
| Take TP1, then breakeven | +2.366R vs +0.906R; TP2 printed 2 of 22 |
| Stop = a 15m CLOSE beyond | never an intraday touch |
Asia opens 18:00 ET Monday. Its job is to build levels, not to be traded: +0.008R on 389 touches, interval −0.16 to +0.17, p 0.91. But the overnight high and low it makes are the two strongest names in the study, 90.0% and 93.3% reject. Read them at 05:00 PT; do not trade them at midnight.